Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonally forced nonlinear epidemic models.
نویسنده
چکیده
A seasonally forced nonlinear SEIR epidemic model is used to simulate small and large amplitude periodic outbreaks. The model is shown to exhibit bistable behavior for a fixed set of parameters. Basins of attraction for each recurrent outbreak are computed, and it is shown that the basins of two coexisting stable outbreaks are intertwined in a complicated manner. The effect of such a basin structure is shown to result in an obstruction in predicting asymptotically the type of outbreak given an uncertainty in the initial population of susceptibles and infectives.
منابع مشابه
Seasonal dynamics and thresholds governing recurrent epidemics.
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عنوان ژورنال:
- Journal of mathematical biology
دوره 21 3 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 1985